Malik Nabers

NYG @ HOU · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receptions · 5.5 at ESPN Bet ·

51Signal · over 5.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

5 / 10

3 straight over

How the formula reads this game

targets: 10.2 a game recently

Expected receptions: 6.8 against 5.5 · over 51%, under 49%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.

Last 10 games against 5.5 · Sep 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -4.5

Each game against 5.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-09-07	WAS	5 under	−0.5
2025-09-14	DAL	9 over	+3.5
2025-09-21	KC	2 under	−3.5
2025-09-28	LAC	2 under	−3.5
2026-09-13	DAL	6 over	+0.5
2026-09-21	LA	1 under	−4.5
2026-09-27	TEN	5 under	−0.5
2026-10-04	ARI	6 over	+0.5
2026-10-11	WAS	11 over	+5.5
2026-10-18	NO	12 over	+6.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	5 / 10	50%	+0.4
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

5.511 books, no line disagreementMGM · DK · FD · ESPN · HR · FL · PX2 · BR · BB · PK6 · PP

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 5.5
2026-10-18	vs NO	12	over
2026-10-11	@ WAS	11	over
2026-10-04	vs ARI	6	over
2026-09-27	vs TEN	5	under
2026-09-21	@ LA	1	under
2026-09-13	vs DAL	6	over
2025-09-28	vs LAC	2	under
2025-09-21	vs KC	2	under
2025-09-14	@ DAL	9	over
2025-09-07	@ WAS	5	under