← NFL board
Malik Willis
MIA vs NE · Sun 4:25 PM ETRushing Yards · 34.5 at ESPN Bet ·
46Signal · over 34.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 5.8 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 37.2 yds against 34.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 34.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -31| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | NYG | 16 under | −18.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | MIN | 3 under | −31.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | CHI | 44 over | +9.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | BAL | 60 over | +25.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | LV | 39 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SF | 6 under | −28.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | KC | 56 over | +21.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | MIN | 11 under | −23.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CIN | 74 over | +39.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | NYJ | 37 over | +2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | 0 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 33.5 · best price BB, PX2, BR -121
- Bally Bet 33.5 -121 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 33.5 -121 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 33.5 -121 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- FanDuel 34.5 -114
- ESPN Bet 34.5 -115
- Hard Rock Bet 34.5 -115
- DraftKings 34.5 -116
- Fliff 34.5 -120
- DK Pick6 34.5
- PrizePicks 34.5
- BetMGM 36.5 -115
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 32.5 to 34.5
- FanDuelMoved from 35.5 to 34.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 34.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ NYJ | 37 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs CIN | 74 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ MIN | 11 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs KC | 56 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ SF | 6 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LV | 39 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | vs BAL | 60 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | @ CHI | 44 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs MIN | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ NYG | 16 | under |