← NFL board4 straight over
Matthew Stafford
LA @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM ETCompletions · 22.5 at PrizePicks ·
54Signal · over 22.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 41.5 a game recently
Expected completions: 27.3 against 22.5 · over 54%, under 46%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 22.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -7.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | DET | 24 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | SEA | 29 over | +6.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | ATL | 22 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ARI | 25 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | SF | 15 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-09-21 | NYG | 22 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DEN | 30 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | PHI | 32 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF | 40 over | +17.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ARI | 25 over | +2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +3.9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
8 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 22.5 · best price DK -125
- DraftKings 22.5 -125 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Hard Rock Bet 22.5 -130 (easiest number)
- betPARX 22.5 -134 (easiest number)
- Fliff 22.5 -135 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 22.5 -136 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 22.5 -139 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 22.5 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 23.5 -105
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 22.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs ARI | 25 | over |
| 2026-10-12 | vs BUF | 40 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ PHI | 32 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DEN | 30 | over |
| 2026-09-21 | vs NYG | 22 | under |
| 2026-09-10 | vs SF | 15 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs ARI | 25 | over |
| 2025-12-29 | @ ATL | 22 | under |
| 2025-12-18 | @ SEA | 29 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs DET | 24 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ARI | 22 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CAR | 18 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs TB | 25 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SEA | 15 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SF | 24 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs NO | 24 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ JAX | 21 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ BAL | 17 | under |
| 2025-10-02 | vs SF | 30 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs IND | 29 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ PHI | 19 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ TEN | 23 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs HOU | 21 | under |