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Michael Penix Jr.
ATL @ TB · Sun 1:00 PM ETCarries · 1.5 · median of 2 books ·
50Signal · over 1.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
- Brian Robinson RB is listed Out (hamstring). He had 30% of ATL's carries this season, 8.8 a game over 6.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 2.4 a game recently
Expected carries: 2.4 against 1.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Oct 13, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | BUF | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | SF | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | NE | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | IND | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | CAR | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-24 | GB | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | NO | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CHI | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | SF | 5 over | +3.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +0.5 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
1.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs SF | 5 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | vs CHI | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs BAL | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-05 | @ NO | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-24 | @ GB | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CAR | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ IND | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NE | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ SF | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-13 | vs BUF | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs WAS | 4 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CAR | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIN | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TB | 6 | over |