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Noah Gray
KC @ SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceiving Yards · 17.5 at DK Pick6 · median 15.5 ·
52Signal · under 17.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
- Rashee Rice WR is listed Out (hamstring). He had 19% of KC's targets this season, 5.7 a game over 3.
Noah's targets without Rashee Rice: 3.0 a game (9 games), against 2.3 with him (9).
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.2 a game recently
- vs SEA · ×0.98 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 22.3 yds against 17.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 17.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -35 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | DEN | 9 under | −8.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | IND | 25 over | +7.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | HOU | 14 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | DEN | 2 under | −15.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LV | 30 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 5 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 0 under | −17.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 39 over | +21.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 17 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 53 over | +35.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 17.5
- BetMGM 14.5
- betPARX 15.5
- FanDuel 15.5
- BetRivers 15.5
- Bally Bet 15.5
- Fliff 15.5
- ESPN Bet 15.5
- PrizePicks 15.5
- Hard Rock Bet 16.5
- DraftKings 17.5 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 17.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 14.5 to 15.5
- betPARXMoved from 14.5 to 15.5
- BetRiversMoved from 14.5 to 15.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 15.5 to 16.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 17.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 53 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 17 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 39 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 5 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LV | 30 | over |
| 2025-12-25 | vs DEN | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs HOU | 14 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs IND | 25 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ DEN | 9 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ BUF | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-27 | vs WAS | 23 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LV | 28 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DET | 25 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NYG | 17 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs PHI | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-05 | @ LAC | 3 | under |