← NFL board3 straight over
Noah Gray
KC @ SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 at Fliff ·
48Signal · over 1.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
- Rashee Rice WR is listed Out (hamstring). He had 19% of KC's targets this season, 5.7 a game over 3.
Noah's targets without Rashee Rice: 3.0 a game (9 games), against 2.3 with him (9).
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.2 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.8 against 1.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | DEN | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | IND | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | HOU | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | DEN | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LV | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 3 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +0.4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
1.59 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BR · MGM · BB · HR · FD · DK · ESPN · FL· best price at 1.5: PX2 -157
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 3 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 3 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 1 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LV | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-25 | vs DEN | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs HOU | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs IND | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ DEN | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ BUF | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-27 | vs WAS | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LV | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DET | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NYG | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs PHI | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-05 | @ LAC | 1 | under |