Pat Bryant
DEN @ CAR · Sun 1:00 PM ETQuestionableReceptions · 1.5 at Fliff · median 2.5 ·
Listed questionable with a ankle injury on the week 9 report, full practice. Everything below is history, and history is a weaker guide when a player is listed. Report checked Nov 7, 4:01 AM ET.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.0 a game recently → 2.7 this game
- Questionable · ×0.91 targets
Expected receptions: 2.0 against 1.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Nov 6, 2025 – Oct 4, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-06 | LV | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | KC | 5 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | WAS | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | LV | 4 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | JAX | 5 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LAC | 4 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 4 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 3 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +1.6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
- FanDuel 1.5 -188 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Fliff 1.5 -195 (easiest number)
- betPARX 2.5 +145
- BetRivers 2.5 +145
- Bally Bet 2.5 +140
- DraftKings 2.5 +140
- Hard Rock Bet 2.5 +120
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 3 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 4 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs LAC | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ LV | 4 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ WAS | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs KC | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 2 | over |