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Pat Freiermuth
PIT @ NO · Sun 9:30 AM ETReceptions · 3.5 · median of 5 books ·
54Signal · under 3.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.8 a game recently
Expected receptions: 3.5 against 3.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Dec 15, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -1.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | MIA | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | DET | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CLE | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | BAL | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 5 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CIN | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | CLE | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | IND | 5 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 2 under | −1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +0.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
5 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 3.5
- BetMGM 2.5
- FanDuel 3.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 3.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 3.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 3.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs IND | 5 | over |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CLE | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CIN | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 4 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 5 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs BAL | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CLE | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DET | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-15 | vs MIA | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BAL | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CHI | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CIN | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ LAC | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs IND | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs GB | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-16 | @ CIN | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CLE | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NE | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SEA | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NYJ | 3 | under |