← NFL board
Pat Freiermuth
PIT @ NO · Sun 9:30 AM ETReceptions · 2.5 at BetMGM · median 3.5 ·
51Signal · over 2.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.8 a game recently
Expected receptions: 3.5 against 2.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 2.5 · Dec 15, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | MIA | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | DET | 4 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CLE | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | BAL | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 5 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 4 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CIN | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | CLE | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | IND | 5 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 2 under | −0.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +0.9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
5 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 2.5
- BetMGM 2.5 -165 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 3.5 +134
- Hard Rock Bet 3.5 +125
- Fliff 3.5 +120
- DraftKings 3.5 +119
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs IND | 5 | over |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CLE | 3 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CIN | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 4 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 5 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs BAL | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CLE | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DET | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-15 | vs MIA | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BAL | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CHI | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CIN | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ LAC | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs IND | 3 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs GB | 3 | over |
| 2025-10-16 | @ CIN | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CLE | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NE | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SEA | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NYJ | 3 | over |