← NFL board4 straight over
Patrick Mahomes
KC @ SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ETPassing Yards · 222.5 at PrizePicks · median 218.5 ·
51Signal · over 222.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 31.6 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 261.8 yds against 222.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 222.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -62| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | DEN | 276 over | +53.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | IND | 352 over | +129.5 |
| 2025-11-27 | DAL | 261 over | +38.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | HOU | 160 under | −62.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LAC | 189 under | −33.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 184 under | −38.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 382 over | +159.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 246 over | +23.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 225 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 272 over | +49.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +32 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
11 books · 8 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 214.5 · best price BB, PX2 -115
- Bally Bet 214.5 -115 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 214.5 -115 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 214.5 -117 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 217.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 218.5 -115
- Fliff 218.5 -120
- ESPN Bet 219.5 -105
- BetMGM 219.5 -115
- DraftKings 220.5 -112
- DK Pick6 220.5
- PrizePicks 222.5
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 217.5 to 214.5
- betPARXMoved from 217.5 to 214.5
- BetRiversMoved from 217.5 to 214.5
- FanDuelMoved from 220.5 to 217.5
- FliffMoved from 221.5 to 218.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 220.5 to 218.5
- BetMGMMoved from 221.5 to 219.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 222.5 to 220.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 217.5 to 222.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 222.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 272 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 225 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 246 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 382 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 184 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LAC | 189 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs HOU | 160 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ DAL | 261 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs IND | 352 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ DEN | 276 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ BUF | 250 | over |
| 2025-10-27 | vs WAS | 299 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LV | 286 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DET | 257 | over |
| 2025-10-06 | @ JAX | 318 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | 270 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NYG | 224 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs PHI | 187 | under |
| 2025-09-05 | @ LAC | 258 | over |