← NFL board3 straight over
Rhamondre Stevenson
NE @ CHI · Thu 8:15 PM ETCarries · 10.5 at betPARX ·
60%under6 / 10 · last 10
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 11.8 a game recently
Expected carries: 11.8 against 10.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 10.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -7.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | BUF | 6 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | BAL | 8 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYJ | 8 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | MIA | 7 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | SEA | 18 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PIT | 6 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | JAX | 7 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF | 13 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LV | 13 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYJ | 14 over | +3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +0.5 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 11.5
- BetMGM 10.5
- betPARX 10.5
- Fanatics 10.5
- Hard Rock Bet 10.5
- Bally Bet 10.5
- ESPN Bet 10.5
- Fliff 10.5
- Underdog 10.5
- PrizePicks 11
- DraftKings 11.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- ESPN BetMoved from 11.5 to 10.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 11.5 to 10.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 10.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs NYJ | 14 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs LV | 13 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ BUF | 13 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ JAX | 7 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PIT | 6 | under |
| 2026-09-09 | @ SEA | 18 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIA | 7 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ NYJ | 8 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ BAL | 8 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BUF | 6 | under |
| 2025-12-01 | vs NYG | 12 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CIN | 6 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CLE | 14 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ TEN | 18 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NO | 13 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ BUF | 7 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CAR | 9 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs PIT | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIA | 11 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs LV | 7 | under |