← NFL board
Rhamondre Stevenson
NE @ CHI · Thu 8:15 PM ETRushing Yards · 40.5 at Fanatics · median 43.5 ·
80%over8 / 10 · last 10
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 11.8 a game recently
- vs CHI · ×1.02 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 44.8 yds against 40.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 40.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -18| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | BUF | 50 over | +9.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | BAL | 51 over | +10.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYJ | 47 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | MIA | 131 over | +90.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | SEA | 51 over | +10.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PIT | 43 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | JAX | 22 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF | 47 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LV | 64 over | +23.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYJ | 36 under | −4.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +14 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
12 books · 5 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 40.5
- Fanatics 40.5 -140 (easiest number)
- betPARX 41.5 -118
- BetRivers 41.5 -120
- Bally Bet 41.5 -122
- PrizePicks 42.5
- FanDuel 43.5 -113
- BetMGM 43.5 -115
- Fliff 43.5 -120
- Hard Rock Bet 44.5 -115
- ESPN Bet 44.5 -120
- DraftKings 45.5 -110
- DK Pick6 45.5
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 44.5 to 41.5
- betPARXMoved from 44.5 to 41.5
- BetRiversMoved from 44.5 to 41.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 41.5 to 42.5
- FanDuelMoved from 42.5 to 43.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 42.5 to 44.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 41.5 to 45.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 44.5 to 45.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 40.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs NYJ | 36 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs LV | 64 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ BUF | 47 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ JAX | 22 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PIT | 43 | over |
| 2026-09-09 | @ SEA | 51 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIA | 131 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ NYJ | 47 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ BAL | 51 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BUF | 50 | over |
| 2025-12-01 | vs NYG | 40 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CIN | 5 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CLE | 34 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ TEN | 88 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NO | 18 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ BUF | 14 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CAR | 38 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs PIT | 18 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIA | 54 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs LV | 15 | under |