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Sam LaPorta
DET vs GB · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceiving Yards · 49.5 · median of 11 books ·
47Signal · over 49.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.4 a game recently
- vs GB · ×0.92 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 58.1 yds against 49.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 49.5 · Oct 5, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -34| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | CIN | 92 over | +42.5 |
| 2025-10-12 | KC | 55 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-10-20 | TB | 15 under | −34.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | MIN | 97 over | +47.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | WAS | 53 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NO | 48 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-17 | BUF | 52 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NYJ | 44 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | CAR | 84 over | +34.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | ARI | 88 over | +38.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +13 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 49.5 · best price FD -114
- FanDuel 49.5 -114 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetMGM 49.5 -115 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 49.5 -115 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 49.5 -120 (easiest number)
- Fliff 49.5 -125 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 49.5 (easiest number)
- Underdog 49.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 50.5 -115
- betPARX 51.5 -113
- BetRivers 51.5 -114
- Bally Bet 51.5 -118
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 56.5 to 49.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 49.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ ARI | 88 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ CAR | 84 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs NYJ | 44 | under |
| 2026-09-17 | @ BUF | 52 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs NO | 48 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ WAS | 53 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs MIN | 97 | over |
| 2025-10-20 | vs TB | 15 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ KC | 55 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ CIN | 92 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CLE | 39 | under |
| 2025-09-22 | @ BAL | 33 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CHI | 26 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ GB | 79 | over |