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Sam LaPorta
DET vs GB · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 4.5 · median of 9 books ·
50Signal · over 4.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.4 a game recently
Expected receptions: 5.4 against 4.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Oct 5, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | CIN | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-10-12 | KC | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-10-20 | TB | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | MIN | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | WAS | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NO | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-17 | BUF | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NYJ | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | CAR | 8 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | ARI | 5 over | +0.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +0.6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
4.59 books, no line disagreementFD · MGM · HR · PX2 · BR · ESPN · FL · DK · BB· best price at 4.5: FD -148
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 5.5 to 4.5
- ESPN BetMoved from 5.5 to 4.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ ARI | 5 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ CAR | 8 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs NYJ | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-17 | @ BUF | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs NO | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ WAS | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs MIN | 6 | over |
| 2025-10-20 | vs TB | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ KC | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ CIN | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CLE | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-22 | @ BAL | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CHI | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ GB | 6 | over |