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Samaje Perine
CIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 31.5 at Fliff ·
46Signal · over 31.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 5.4 a game recently
- targets: 2.0 a game recently
- vs BAL · ×0.96 yds per carry
- vs BAL · ×0.98 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 33.0 yds against 31.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 31.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -24| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | BUF | 38 over | +6.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BAL | 43 over | +11.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | MIA | 41 over | +9.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | ARI | 13 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CLE | 52 over | +20.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TB | 50 over | +18.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | HOU | 22 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | PIT | 14 under | −17.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | JAX | 7 under | −24.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIA | 78 over | +46.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
5 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 31.5 · best price FD -114
- FanDuel 31.5 -114 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Fliff 31.5 -125 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 31.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 32.5 -115
- DraftKings 33.5 -116
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 31.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ MIA | 78 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs JAX | 7 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ PIT | 14 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ HOU | 22 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs TB | 50 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs CLE | 52 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs ARI | 13 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ MIA | 41 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BAL | 43 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BUF | 38 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | @ BAL | 54 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs CHI | 5 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs NYJ | 100 | over |
| 2025-10-16 | vs PIT | 31 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ GB | 32 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DET | 29 | under |
| 2025-09-29 | @ DEN | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ MIN | 21 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ CLE | 6 | under |