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Seth McGowan
IND @ JAX · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 0.5 ·
45Signal · over 0.557% · 4 / 7 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 7Cleared the number in 4 of 7 games, 3 without a result
PrizePicks 0.5 ·
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 0.7 a game recently
Expected receptions: 0.6 against 0.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 0.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-13 | BAL | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | KC | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | HOU | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | WAS | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | PIT | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TEN | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | MIN | 1 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 4 / 7 | 57% over | +0.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 57% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
0.5PrizePicks· one book
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ MIN | 1 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | vs TEN | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ PIT | 1 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ WAS | 1 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs HOU | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ KC | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BAL | 1 | over |