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Stefon Diggs
WAS vs PHI · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceiving Yards · 45.5 at BetMGM · median 42.5 ·
55Signal · under 45.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.6 a game recently → 8.1 this game
- WR1 on the depth chart (usually WR2) · ×1.07 targets
- vs PHI · ×0.99 yds per target
- Heavier load · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 46.4 yds against 45.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 45.5 · Dec 1, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -92 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | NYG | 26 under | −19.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BUF | 26 under | −19.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | BAL | 138 over | +92.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYJ | 101 over | +55.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | MIA | 43 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | PHI | 55 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | DAL | 47 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | SEA | 33 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | IND | 35 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | SF | 44 under | −1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 45.5
- betPARX 42.5
- BetRivers 42.5
- FanDuel 42.5
- Hard Rock Bet 42.5
- Bally Bet 42.5
- Fliff 42.5
- ESPN Bet 42.5
- PrizePicks 42.5
- DraftKings 44.5
- DK Pick6 44.5
- BetMGM 45.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 43.5 to 42.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 44.5 to 42.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 45.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | @ SF | 44 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs IND | 35 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs SEA | 33 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ DAL | 47 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ PHI | 55 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIA | 43 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ NYJ | 101 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ BAL | 138 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BUF | 26 | under |
| 2025-12-01 | vs NYG | 26 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CIN | 20 | under |
| 2025-11-13 | vs NYJ | 105 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ TB | 46 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs ATL | 38 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CLE | 14 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ TEN | 69 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NO | 28 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ BUF | 146 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CAR | 101 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs PIT | 23 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIA | 32 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs LV | 57 | over |