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Stefon Diggs
WAS vs PHI · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceiving Yards · 42.5 at betPARX ·
46Signal · over 42.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.6 a game recently → 8.1 this game
- WR1 on the depth chart (usually WR2) · ×1.07 targets
- vs PHI · ×0.99 yds per target
- Heavier load · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 46.4 yds against 42.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 42.5 · Dec 1, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -16| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | NYG | 26 under | −16.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BUF | 26 under | −16.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | BAL | 138 over | +95.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYJ | 101 over | +58.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | MIA | 43 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | PHI | 55 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | DAL | 47 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | SEA | 33 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | IND | 35 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | SF | 44 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +12 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 42.5 · best price PX2 -113
- betPARX 42.5 -113 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 42.5 -114 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 42.5 -114 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 42.5 -115 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 42.5 -118 (easiest number)
- Fliff 42.5 -120 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 42.5 -125 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 42.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 44.5 -109
- DK Pick6 44.5
- BetMGM 45.5 -115
Line movement
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 43.5 to 42.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 44.5 to 42.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 42.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | @ SF | 44 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs IND | 35 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs SEA | 33 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ DAL | 47 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ PHI | 55 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIA | 43 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ NYJ | 101 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ BAL | 138 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BUF | 26 | under |
| 2025-12-01 | vs NYG | 26 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CIN | 20 | under |
| 2025-11-13 | vs NYJ | 105 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ TB | 46 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs ATL | 38 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CLE | 14 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ TEN | 69 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NO | 28 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ BUF | 146 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CAR | 101 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs PIT | 23 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIA | 32 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs LV | 57 | over |