← NFL board4 straight under
Tai Felton
MIN vs MIA · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 at BetMGM ·
63Signal · under 1.5100% · 4 / 4 · last 10 · the formula's chance
0 / 4Cleared the number in 0 of 4 games, 6 without a result
- Justin Jefferson WR is listed Out (ankle). He had 25% of MIN's targets this season, 5.7 a game over 3.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.4 a game recently → 2.4 this game
- Jefferson out · +1.0 targets (17% of his 5.7)
Expected receptions: 1.0 against 1.5 · over 37%, under 63%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 1 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Sep 21, 2025 – Sep 27, 2026
Tightest clearance +0.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2025-09-21 | CIN | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | WAS | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NYG | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | TB | 0 under | −1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 4 / 4 | 100% under | +0.8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 100% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Book Range
1.55 books, no line disagreementMGM · FD · FL · DK · PP
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | @ TB | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ NYG | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs WAS | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs CIN | 1 | under |