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Tetairoa McMillan
CAR vs TB · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 5.5 at Hard Rock Bet ·
50Signal · under 5.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 9.6 a game recently
Expected receptions: 6.4 against 5.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 5.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -8.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | LA | 1 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NO | 2 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TB | 6 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SEA | 1 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | TB | 4 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CHI | 5 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | ATL | 5 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CLE | 2 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DET | 14 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | PHI | 6 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +0.9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
5.59 books, no line disagreementDK · ESPN · PX2 · FD · HR · BR · FL · BB · MGM
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 5.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ PHI | 6 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DET | 14 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ CLE | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ ATL | 5 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs CHI | 5 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | @ TB | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs SEA | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs TB | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NO | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs LA | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-24 | @ SF | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ATL | 8 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NO | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ GB | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs BUF | 7 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ NYJ | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DAL | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs MIA | 6 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ NE | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ATL | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ ARI | 6 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ JAX | 5 | under |