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TreVeyon Henderson

NE @ CHI · Thu 8:15 PM ET

Rush + Rec Yards · 32.5 at PrizePicks ·

80%over8 / 10 · last 10
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
3 straight over

How the formula reads this game

  • carries: 9.8 a game recently
  • targets: 1.0 a game recently
  • vs CHI · ×1.02 yds per carry
  • vs CHI · ×0.99 yds per target

Expected rush + rec yards: 45.8 yds against 32.5 · over 51%, under 49%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 32.5 · Dec 1, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -20
32.52025-12-01 vs NYG: 86, over 32.5 by 53.5 yds86NYG2025-12-14 vs BUF: 161, over 32.5 by 128.5 yds161BUF2025-12-21 at BAL: 12, under 32.5 by 20.5 yds12BAL2025-12-28 at NYJ: 82, over 32.5 by 49.5 yds82NYJ2026-01-04 vs MIA: 53, over 32.5 by 20.5 yds53MIA2026-09-20 vs PIT: 76, over 32.5 by 43.5 yds76PIT2026-09-27 at JAX: 29, under 32.5 by 3.5 yds29JAX2026-10-04 at BUF: 42, over 32.5 by 9.5 yds42BUF2026-10-11 vs LV: 38, over 32.5 by 5.5 yds38LV2026-10-18 vs NYJ: 40, over 32.5 by 7.5 yds40NYJ
Each game against 32.5
DateOpponentResultMargin
2025-12-01NYG86 over+53.5
2025-12-14BUF161 over+128.5
2025-12-21BAL12 under−20.5
2025-12-28NYJ82 over+49.5
2026-01-04MIA53 over+20.5
2026-09-20PIT76 over+43.5
2026-09-27JAX29 under−3.5
2026-10-04BUF42 over+9.5
2026-10-11LV38 over+5.5
2026-10-18NYJ40 over+7.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

WindowHitsRateAvg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro) Pro
Last 108 / 1080% over+29
Last 20 (with DPB Pro) Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) Pro
Away (with DPB Pro) Pro

See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card

Book Range

5 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 31.5
  • FanDuel 31.5 -115 (easiest number)
  • DraftKings 32.5 -109
  • Hard Rock Bet 32.5 -110
  • BetMGM 32.5 -120
  • PrizePicks 32.5

Line movement

  • BetMGMMoved from 31.5 to 32.5
  • DraftKingsMoved from 31.5 to 32.5
  • Hard Rock BetMoved from 31.5 to 32.5
  • PrizePicksMoved from 31.5 to 32.5

Game log

DateOpponentResultvs 32.5
2026-10-18vs NYJ40over
2026-10-11vs LV38over
2026-10-04@ BUF42over
2026-09-27@ JAX29under
2026-09-20vs PIT76over
2026-01-04vs MIA53over
2025-12-28@ NYJ82over
2025-12-21@ BAL12under
2025-12-14vs BUF161over
2025-12-01vs NYG86over
2025-11-23@ CIN81over
2025-11-13vs NYJ93over
2025-11-09@ TB150over
2025-11-02vs ATL87over
2025-10-26vs CLE75over
2025-10-19@ TEN5under
2025-10-12@ NO36over
2025-10-05@ BUF27under
2025-09-28vs CAR46over
2025-09-21vs PIT47over
2025-09-14@ MIA40over
2025-09-07vs LV51over