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Ty Johnson
BUF vs BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 14.5 at PrizePicks ·
52Signal · over 14.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.0 a game recently
- vs BAL · ×0.98 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 38.0 yds against 14.5 · over 52%, under 48%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 14.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -14| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | PIT | 20 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | CIN | 14 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NE | 15 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CLE | 0 under | −14.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | PHI | 33 over | +18.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NYJ | 20 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LAC | 50 over | +35.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NE | 9 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | LA | 72 over | +57.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LV | 24 over | +9.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +11 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
7 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 14.5 · best price DK -114
- DraftKings 14.5 -114 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetMGM 14.5 -120 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 14.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 14.5 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 15.5 +100
- Hard Rock Bet 15.5 -110
- FanDuel 15.5 -114
Line movement
- BetMGMMoved from 15.5 to 14.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 15.5 to 14.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 15.5 to 14.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 15.5 to 14.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 14.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ LV | 24 | over |
| 2026-10-12 | @ LA | 72 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs NE | 9 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LAC | 50 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs NYJ | 20 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs PHI | 33 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CLE | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NE | 15 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs CIN | 14 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ PIT | 20 | over |
| 2025-11-20 | @ HOU | 45 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs TB | 61 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIA | 24 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs KC | 12 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ CAR | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ ATL | 11 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs NE | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs NO | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-18 | vs MIA | 8 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ NYJ | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs BAL | 0 | under |