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Ty Johnson
BUF vs BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 2.5 at BetMGM ·
52Signal · under 2.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 3.0 against 2.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 2.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -2.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | PIT | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | CIN | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NE | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CLE | 0 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | PHI | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NYJ | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LAC | 4 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NE | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | LA | 4 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LV | 2 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | 0 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
2.55 books, no line disagreementMGM · ESPN · FD · HR · DK
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ LV | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-12 | @ LA | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs NE | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LAC | 4 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs NYJ | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs PHI | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CLE | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NE | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs CIN | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ PIT | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-20 | @ HOU | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs TB | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIA | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs KC | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ CAR | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ ATL | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs NE | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs NO | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-18 | vs MIA | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ NYJ | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs BAL | 0 | under |