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Tyler Higbee
LA @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceiving Yards · 40.5 · median of 10 books ·
53Signal · under 40.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.8 a game recently
- vs LV · ×0.96 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 47.1 yds against 40.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 40.5 · Oct 19, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -50 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | JAX | 19 under | −21.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | NO | 13 under | −27.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | SF | 33 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | SEA | 23 under | −17.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ARI | 91 over | +50.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | SF | 12 under | −28.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DEN | 62 over | +21.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | PHI | 67 over | +26.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF | 83 over | +42.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ARI | 22 under | −18.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 41.5
- ESPN Bet 39.5
- Fliff 39.5
- DraftKings 40.5
- FanDuel 40.5
- Hard Rock Bet 40.5
- PrizePicks 40.5
- BetMGM 41.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 41.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 41.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 41.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- FliffMoved from 37.5 to 39.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 37.5 to 40.5
- FanDuelMoved from 37.5 to 40.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 37.5 to 40.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 34.5 to 40.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 40.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs ARI | 22 | under |
| 2026-10-12 | vs BUF | 83 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ PHI | 67 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DEN | 62 | over |
| 2026-09-10 | vs SF | 12 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs ARI | 91 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SEA | 23 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SF | 33 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs NO | 13 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ JAX | 19 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ BAL | 40 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs IND | 25 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ PHI | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ TEN | 37 | under |