← NFL board
Tyler Shough
NO vs PIT · Sun 9:30 AM ETPass Attempts · 35.5 at Bally Bet ·
50Signal · under 35.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 39.2 a game recently
Expected pass attempts: 39.2 against 35.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 35.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -20.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CAR | 32 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NYJ | 49 over | +13.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | TEN | 27 under | −8.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ATL | 35 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | DET | 56 over | +20.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | BAL | 34 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LV | 42 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | ATL | 48 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIN | 25 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYG | 30 under | −5.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -2.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
8 books · 2 spreadEasiest number for the under: 36.5
- BetMGM 34.5
- betPARX 35.5
- Bally Bet 35.5
- Fliff 35.5
- Fanatics 35.5
- PrizePicks 36
- Hard Rock Bet 36.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 36.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- BetMGMMoved from 35.5 to 34.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 33.5 to 36
- DraftKingsMoved from 35.5 to 36.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 35.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ NYG | 30 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs MIN | 25 | under |
| 2026-10-05 | vs ATL | 48 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LV | 42 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ BAL | 34 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ DET | 56 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ ATL | 35 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ TEN | 27 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NYJ | 49 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CAR | 32 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ TB | 20 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ MIA | 38 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs ATL | 43 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ CAR | 27 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ LA | 24 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TB | 30 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ SEA | 2 | under |