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Tyler Warren
IND @ MIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 41.5 at PrizePicks ·
55Signal · under 41.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
PrizePicks 41.5 ·
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.2 a game recently
- vs MIN · ×0.99 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 42.1 yds against 41.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 41.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -41 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | JAX | 15 under | −26.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | SEA | 19 under | −22.5 |
| 2025-12-22 | SF | 30 under | −11.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | JAX | 43 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | HOU | 26 under | −15.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | BAL | 13 under | −28.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | KC | 21 under | −20.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | HOU | 55 over | +13.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | WAS | 41 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | PIT | 83 over | +41.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
41.5PrizePicks· one book
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 38.5 to 41.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 41.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ PIT | 83 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ WAS | 41 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs HOU | 55 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ KC | 21 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BAL | 13 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ HOU | 26 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs JAX | 43 | over |
| 2025-12-22 | vs SF | 30 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ SEA | 19 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ JAX | 15 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs HOU | 22 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ KC | 45 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ATL | 99 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ PIT | 26 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TEN | 53 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ LAC | 69 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs ARI | 63 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs LV | 44 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LA | 70 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ TEN | 38 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs DEN | 79 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs MIA | 76 | over |