Van Jefferson

WAS vs LA · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receptions · 1.5 ·

53Signal · over 1.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

5 / 10

Fliff 1.5 +150 ·

How the formula reads this game

targets: 3.1 a game recently

Expected receptions: 1.7 against 1.5 · over 47%, under 53%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 1 this season.

Last 10 games against 1.5 · Oct 26, 2025 – Nov 1, 2026

Worst miss -1.5

Each game against 1.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-10-26	IND	1 under	−0.5
2025-11-02	LAC	1 under	−0.5
2025-11-16	HOU	3 over	+1.5
2025-11-23	SEA	1 under	−0.5
2025-11-30	JAX	3 over	+1.5
2025-12-07	CLE	2 over	+0.5
2025-12-14	SF	1 under	−0.5
2025-12-21	KC	2 over	+0.5
2025-12-28	NO	3 over	+1.5
2026-11-01	PHI	0 under	−1.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	5 / 10	50%	+0.2
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

1.5Fliff· one book

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 1.5
2026-11-01	vs PHI	0	under
2025-12-28	vs NO	3	over
2025-12-21	vs KC	2	over
2025-12-14	@ SF	1	under
2025-12-07	@ CLE	2	over
2025-11-30	vs JAX	3	over
2025-11-23	vs SEA	1	under
2025-11-16	vs HOU	3	over
2025-11-02	vs LAC	1	under
2025-10-26	@ IND	1	under
2025-10-19	vs NE	4	over
2025-10-12	@ LV	4	over
2025-09-28	@ HOU	1	under
2025-09-21	vs IND	1	under
2025-09-14	vs LA	2	over