Van Jefferson

WAS vs LA · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 9.5 · median of 2 books ·

54Signal · over 9.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

8 / 10

How the formula reads this game

targets: 3.1 a game recently
vs LA · ×0.99 yds per target

Expected receiving yards: 20.2 yds against 9.5 · over 54%, under 46%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 1 this season.

Last 10 games against 9.5 · Oct 26, 2025 – Nov 1, 2026

Worst miss -9

Each game against 9.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-10-26	IND	6 under	−3.5
2025-11-02	LAC	21 over	+11.5
2025-11-16	HOU	22 over	+12.5
2025-11-23	SEA	11 over	+1.5
2025-11-30	JAX	20 over	+10.5
2025-12-07	CLE	17 over	+7.5
2025-12-14	SF	43 over	+33.5
2025-12-21	KC	24 over	+14.5
2025-12-28	NO	46 over	+36.5
2026-11-01	PHI	0 under	−9.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	8 / 10	80% over	+12
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

2 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 9.5

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 9.5
2026-11-01	vs PHI	0	under
2025-12-28	vs NO	46	over
2025-12-21	vs KC	24	over
2025-12-14	@ SF	43	over
2025-12-07	@ CLE	17	over
2025-11-30	vs JAX	20	over
2025-11-23	vs SEA	11	over
2025-11-16	vs HOU	22	over
2025-11-02	vs LAC	21	over
2025-10-26	@ IND	6	under
2025-10-19	vs NE	41	over
2025-10-12	@ LV	75	over
2025-09-28	@ HOU	6	under
2025-09-21	vs IND	8	under
2025-09-14	vs LA	10	over