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Xavier Hutchinson
HOU vs NYG · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 10.5 at BetRivers · median 13.5 ·
59Signal · over 10.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.7 a game recently → 4.6 this game
- WR4+ on the depth chart (usually WR2) · ×0.82 targets
- vs NYG · ×0.99 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 32.6 yds against 10.5 · over 59%, under 41%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 10.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -6| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | ARI | 16 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | LV | 4 under | −6.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | LAC | 21 over | +10.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | IND | 84 over | +73.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | BUF | 32 over | +21.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CIN | 37 over | +26.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | IND | 51 over | +40.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DAL | 46 over | +35.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | TEN | 65 over | +54.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | JAX | 10 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +26 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 4 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 10.5 · best price PX2 -108
- betPARX 10.5 -108 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 10.5 -109 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 10.5 -113 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 10.5 -115 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 13.5 -112
- FanDuel 13.5 -114
- Fliff 13.5 -115
- Hard Rock Bet 13.5 -115
- PrizePicks 13.5
- ESPN Bet 14.5 +100
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 10.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ JAX | 10 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ TEN | 65 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DAL | 46 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ IND | 51 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CIN | 37 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BUF | 32 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs IND | 84 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | @ LAC | 21 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs LV | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs ARI | 16 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ KC | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ IND | 39 | over |
| 2025-11-20 | vs BUF | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ TEN | 42 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs DEN | 30 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs SF | 69 | over |
| 2025-10-20 | @ SEA | 13 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ BAL | 18 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs TEN | 17 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ JAX | 16 | over |
| 2025-09-15 | vs TB | 29 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ LA | 30 | over |