← NFL board8 straight over
Xavier Hutchinson
HOU vs NYG · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 at Fliff ·
52Signal · over 1.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.7 a game recently → 4.6 this game
- WR4+ on the depth chart (usually WR2) · ×0.82 targets
Expected receptions: 2.4 against 1.5 · over 52%, under 48%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | ARI | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | LV | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | LAC | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | IND | 5 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | BUF | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CIN | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | IND | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DAL | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | TEN | 4 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | JAX | 2 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +1.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
1.59 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BR · BB · ESPN · DK · MGM · FL · HR · FD· best price at 1.5: PX2, BR +180
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ JAX | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ TEN | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DAL | 3 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ IND | 3 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CIN | 3 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BUF | 3 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs IND | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | @ LAC | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs LV | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs ARI | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ KC | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ IND | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-20 | vs BUF | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ TEN | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs DEN | 3 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs SF | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-20 | @ SEA | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ BAL | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs TEN | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ JAX | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-15 | vs TB | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ LA | 2 | over |