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Xavier Worthy
KC @ SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceiving Yards · 49.5 at Fliff · median 50.5 ·
56Signal · under 49.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
- Rashee Rice WR is listed Out (hamstring). He had 19% of KC's targets this season, 5.7 a game over 3.
Xavier's targets without Rashee Rice: 5.3 a game (8 games), against 5.5 with him (11).
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.8 a game recently → 6.9 this game
- Rice out · +1.1 targets (20% of his 5.7)
- vs SEA · ×0.92 yds per target
- Heavier load · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 45.9 yds against 49.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 49.5 · Nov 27, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -23 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-27 | DAL | 61 over | +11.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | HOU | 55 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LAC | 35 under | −14.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TEN | 41 under | −8.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | DEN | 0 under | −49.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 18 under | −31.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 25 under | −24.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 20 under | −29.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 70 over | +20.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 73 over | +23.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +10 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 50.5
- BetMGM 48.5
- FanDuel 49.5
- Hard Rock Bet 49.5
- Fliff 49.5
- Underdog 49.5
- betPARX 50.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 50.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 50.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 50.5 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 50.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 50.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 49.5 to 50.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 49.5 to 50.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 49.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 73 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 70 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 20 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 25 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 18 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | vs DEN | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ TEN | 41 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LAC | 35 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs HOU | 55 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | @ DAL | 61 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs IND | 59 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ DEN | 25 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ BUF | 23 | under |
| 2025-10-27 | vs WAS | 53 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LV | 35 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DET | 20 | under |
| 2025-10-06 | @ JAX | 42 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | 83 | over |
| 2025-09-05 | @ LAC | 0 | under |