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Xavier Worthy
KC @ SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceptions · 4.5 at BetRivers ·
52Signal · under 4.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 10Cleared the number in 2 of 10 games
- Rashee Rice WR is listed Out (hamstring). He had 19% of KC's targets this season, 5.7 a game over 3.
Xavier's targets without Rashee Rice: 5.3 a game (8 games), against 5.5 with him (11).
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.8 a game recently → 6.9 this game
- Rice out · +1.1 targets (20% of his 5.7)
Expected receptions: 5.0 against 4.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Nov 27, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -2.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-27 | DAL | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | HOU | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LAC | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TEN | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | DEN | 0 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 7 over | +2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% under | +1.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
4.511 books, no line disagreementPX2 · DK · FD · BR · HR · BB · FL · MGM · PK6 · PP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 7 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 5 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | vs DEN | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ TEN | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LAC | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs HOU | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ DAL | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs IND | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ DEN | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ BUF | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-27 | vs WAS | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LV | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DET | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-06 | @ JAX | 6 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-05 | @ LAC | 0 | under |