← NFL board5 straight over
Zachariah Branch
ATL vs SF · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 0.5 at FanDuel · median 1.5 ·
56Signal · over 0.5100% · 5 / 5 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 5Cleared the number in 5 of 5 games, 5 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.8 against 0.5 · over 56%, under 44%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 0.5 · Sep 20, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026
Tightest clearance +0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-20 | CAR | 2 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-24 | GB | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | NO | 2 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL | 2 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CHI | 2 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 5 | 100% over | +1.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 100% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
5 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 0.5
- FanDuel 0.5 -270 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 1.5 +180
- DraftKings 1.5 +179
- Hard Rock Bet 1.5 +170
- Fliff 1.5 +165
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs CHI | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs BAL | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-05 | @ NO | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-24 | @ GB | 1 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CAR | 2 | over |