Aaron Jones

MIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Carries · 10.5 at Fliff · median 11 ·

62Signal · over 10.590% · 9 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

9 / 10

9 straight over

How the formula reads this game

carries: 19.4 a game recently

Expected carries: 19.4 against 10.5 · over 62%, under 38%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 10.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026

Worst miss -4.5

Each game against 10.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-11-30	SEA	6 under	−4.5
2025-12-07	WAS	14 over	+3.5
2025-12-14	DAL	12 over	+1.5
2025-12-21	NYG	21 over	+10.5
2025-12-25	DET	18 over	+7.5
2026-09-13	GB	12 over	+1.5
2026-09-20	CHI	23 over	+12.5
2026-09-27	TB	17 over	+6.5
2026-10-04	MIA	20 over	+9.5
2026-10-11	NO	25 over	+14.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	9 / 10	90% over	+6.3
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 90% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range

5 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 10.5 · best price DK -131

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 10.5
2026-10-11	@ NO	25	over
2026-10-04	vs MIA	20	over
2026-09-27	@ TB	17	over
2026-09-20	@ CHI	23	over
2026-09-13	vs GB	12	over
2025-12-25	vs DET	18	over
2025-12-21	@ NYG	21	over
2025-12-14	@ DAL	12	over
2025-12-07	vs WAS	14	over
2025-11-30	@ SEA	6	under
2025-11-23	@ GB	9	under
2025-11-16	vs CHI	16	over
2025-11-09	vs BAL	9	under
2025-11-02	@ DET	9	under
2025-10-23	@ LAC	5	under
2025-09-14	vs ATL	5	under
2025-09-08	@ CHI	8	under