Aaron Jones

MIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receptions · 2.5 at Underdog ·

45Signal · over 2.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

6 / 10

3 straight over

How the formula reads this game

targets: 3.6 a game recently

Expected receptions: 2.4 against 2.5 · over 45%, under 55%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 2.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026

Worst miss -2.5

Each game against 2.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-11-30	SEA	4 over	+1.5
2025-12-07	WAS	0 under	−2.5
2025-12-14	DAL	3 over	+0.5
2025-12-21	NYG	2 under	−0.5
2025-12-25	DET	3 over	+0.5
2026-09-13	GB	0 under	−2.5
2026-09-20	CHI	0 under	−2.5
2026-09-27	TB	5 over	+2.5
2026-10-04	MIA	4 over	+1.5
2026-10-11	NO	3 over	+0.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	6 / 10	60% over	-0.1
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

2.59 books, no line disagreementFD · HR · DK · FL · PX2 · BR · BB · PP · UD· best price at 2.5: FD -114

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 2.5
2026-10-11	@ NO	3	over
2026-10-04	vs MIA	4	over
2026-09-27	@ TB	5	over
2026-09-20	@ CHI	0	under
2026-09-13	vs GB	0	under
2025-12-25	vs DET	3	over
2025-12-21	@ NYG	2	under
2025-12-14	@ DAL	3	over
2025-12-07	vs WAS	0	under
2025-11-30	@ SEA	4	over
2025-11-23	@ GB	3	over
2025-11-16	vs CHI	3	over
2025-11-09	vs BAL	3	over
2025-11-02	@ DET	2	under
2025-10-23	@ LAC	2	under
2025-09-14	vs ATL	0	under
2025-09-08	@ CHI	3	over