← NFL board4 straight over
Aaron Jones
MIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 58.5 at BetRivers · median 59.5 ·
53Signal · over 58.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 19.4 a game recently
- targets: 3.6 a game recently
- vs IND · ×0.98 yds per carry
Expected rush + rec yards: 95.2 yds against 58.5 · over 53%, under 47%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 58.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -33| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | SEA | 25 under | −33.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | WAS | 76 over | +17.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | DAL | 65 over | +6.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NYG | 93 over | +34.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | DET | 63 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | GB | 40 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CHI | 105 over | +46.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | TB | 92 over | +33.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | MIA | 128 over | +69.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NO | 117 over | +58.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +22 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
9 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 58.5 · best price BB, PX2 -113
- Bally Bet 58.5 -113 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 58.5 -113 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 58.5 -114 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 59.5 -111
- FanDuel 59.5 -113
- Hard Rock Bet 59.5 -115
- PrizePicks 59.5
- Underdog 59.5
- Fliff 60.5 -120
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 58.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ NO | 117 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs MIA | 128 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ TB | 92 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ CHI | 105 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs GB | 40 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | vs DET | 63 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ NYG | 93 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ DAL | 65 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs WAS | 76 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ SEA | 25 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ GB | 57 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CHI | 81 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs BAL | 69 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ DET | 98 | over |
| 2025-10-23 | @ LAC | 30 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs ATL | 23 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | @ CHI | 67 | over |