← NFL board
Adonai Mitchell
NYJ vs MIA · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 at Hard Rock Bet · median 2.5 ·
59Signal · over 1.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.5 a game recently
Expected receptions: 3.9 against 1.5 · over 59%, under 41%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 2 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Nov 13, 2025 – Sep 20, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-13 | NE | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | BAL | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | ATL | 8 over | +6.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | MIA | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | JAX | 6 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NO | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NE | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | BUF | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TEN | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | GB | 6 over | +4.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +1.8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
5 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 1.5 · best price HR -170
- Hard Rock Bet 1.5 -170 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- FanDuel 1.5 -200 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 2.5 +135
- DraftKings 2.5 +135
- Fliff 2.5 +135
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | vs GB | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ TEN | 3 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ BUF | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NE | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ NO | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ JAX | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs MIA | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs ATL | 8 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ BAL | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-13 | @ NE | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ PIT | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TEN | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ LAC | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs LV | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LA | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ TEN | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs DEN | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs MIA | 2 | over |