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Baker Mayfield
TB @ CAR · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 16.5 at Hard Rock Bet ·
48Signal · over 16.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 3.7 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 21.7 yds against 16.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 16.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Sep 27, 2026
Worst miss -15| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | LA | 19 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | ARI | 27 over | +10.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | NO | 42 over | +25.5 |
| 2025-12-11 | ATL | 1 under | −15.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CAR | 49 over | +32.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | MIA | 16 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | CAR | 31 over | +14.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CIN | 30 over | +13.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CLE | 29 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIN | 6 under | −10.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
16.55 books, no line disagreementDK · FD · HR · FL · PP· best price at 16.5: DK -112
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 16.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | vs MIN | 6 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CLE | 29 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CIN | 30 | over |
| 2026-01-03 | vs CAR | 31 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ MIA | 16 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CAR | 49 | over |
| 2025-12-11 | vs ATL | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs NO | 42 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs ARI | 27 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ LA | 19 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ BUF | 39 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NE | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ NO | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-20 | @ DET | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs SF | 14 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ SEA | 15 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs PHI | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NYJ | 44 | over |
| 2025-09-15 | @ HOU | 33 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ ATL | 39 | over |