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Blake Corum
LA @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 49.5 at BetMGM · median 48.5 ·
46Signal · over 49.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 7.8 a game recently
- targets: 2.2 a game recently
- vs LV · ×1.01 yds per carry
- vs LV · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 52.9 yds against 49.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 49.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -34| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | DET | 71 over | +21.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | SEA | 61 over | +11.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | ATL | 18 under | −31.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ARI | 69 over | +19.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | SF | 54 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-09-21 | NYG | 92 over | +42.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DEN | 15 under | −34.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | PHI | 21 under | −28.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF | 72 over | +22.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ARI | 60 over | +10.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 47.5 · best price BB, PX2 -112
- Bally Bet 47.5 -112 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 47.5 -112 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 47.5 -113 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 47.5 -118 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 48.5 -115
- Fliff 48.5 -120
- DraftKings 49.5 -114
- BetMGM 49.5 -115
- PrizePicks 49.5
- Underdog 49.5
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 47.5 to 49.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 49.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs ARI | 60 | over |
| 2026-10-12 | vs BUF | 72 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ PHI | 21 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DEN | 15 | under |
| 2026-09-21 | vs NYG | 92 | over |
| 2026-09-10 | vs SF | 54 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs ARI | 69 | over |
| 2025-12-29 | @ ATL | 18 | under |
| 2025-12-18 | @ SEA | 61 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs DET | 71 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ARI | 131 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CAR | 81 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs TB | 24 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SEA | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SF | 56 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs NO | 58 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ JAX | 43 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ BAL | 23 | under |
| 2025-10-02 | vs SF | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs IND | 16 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ PHI | 53 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ TEN | 44 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs HOU | 16 | under |