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Blake Corum
LA @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM ETRushing Yards · 38.5 at PrizePicks · median 37.5 ·
45Signal · over 38.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 7.8 a game recently
- vs LV · ×1.01 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 37.4 yds against 38.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 38.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -24| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | DET | 71 over | +32.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | SEA | 48 over | +9.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | ATL | 18 under | −20.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ARI | 59 over | +20.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | SF | 54 over | +15.5 |
| 2026-09-21 | NYG | 79 over | +40.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DEN | 15 under | −23.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | PHI | 14 under | −24.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF | 19 under | −19.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ARI | 42 over | +3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 4 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 34.5
- ESPN Bet 34.5 -130 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 37.5 -110
- betPARX 37.5 -112
- BetRivers 37.5 -113
- FanDuel 37.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 37.5 -115
- Bally Bet 37.5 -117
- Fliff 37.5 -120
- BetMGM 38.5 -115
- PrizePicks 38.5
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 38.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs ARI | 42 | over |
| 2026-10-12 | vs BUF | 19 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ PHI | 14 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DEN | 15 | under |
| 2026-09-21 | vs NYG | 79 | over |
| 2026-09-10 | vs SF | 54 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs ARI | 59 | over |
| 2025-12-29 | @ ATL | 18 | under |
| 2025-12-18 | @ SEA | 48 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs DET | 71 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ARI | 128 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CAR | 81 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs TB | 24 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SEA | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SF | 56 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs NO | 58 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ JAX | 37 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ BAL | 23 | under |
| 2025-10-02 | vs SF | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs IND | 21 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ PHI | 53 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ TEN | 44 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs HOU | 2 | under |