← NFL board6 straight over
Bryce Young
CAR vs TB · Sun 1:00 PM ETPassing Yards · 253.5 at BetRivers ·
52Signal · over 253.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 40.2 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 309.8 yds against 253.5 · over 52%, under 48%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 253.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -199| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | LA | 206 under | −47.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NO | 163 under | −90.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TB | 191 under | −62.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SEA | 54 under | −199.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | TB | 266 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CHI | 361 over | +107.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | ATL | 287 over | +33.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CLE | 291 over | +37.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DET | 329 over | +75.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | PHI | 281 over | +27.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | -11 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 253.5 · best price DK -111
- DraftKings 253.5 -111 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Bally Bet 253.5 -113 (easiest number)
- betPARX 253.5 -113 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 253.5 -114 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 253.5 -114 (easiest number)
- Fliff 253.5 -120 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 253.5 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 254.5 -110
- Hard Rock Bet 254.5 -115
- BetMGM 256.5 -115
Line movement
- FanDuelMoved from 252.5 to 253.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 242.5 to 253.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 253.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ PHI | 281 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DET | 329 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ CLE | 291 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ ATL | 287 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs CHI | 361 | over |
| 2026-01-03 | @ TB | 266 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs SEA | 54 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs TB | 191 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NO | 163 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs LA | 206 | under |
| 2025-11-24 | @ SF | 169 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ATL | 448 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NO | 124 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ GB | 102 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ NYJ | 138 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DAL | 199 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs MIA | 198 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ NE | 150 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ATL | 121 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ ARI | 328 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ JAX | 154 | under |