← NFL board6 straight over
Bryce Young
CAR vs TB · Sun 1:00 PM ETPassing Yards · 253.5 at PrizePicks ·
52Signal · over 253.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 40.2 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 309.8 yds against 253.5 · over 52%, under 48%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 253.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -199| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | LA | 206 under | −47.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NO | 163 under | −90.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TB | 191 under | −62.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SEA | 54 under | −199.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | TB | 266 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CHI | 361 over | +107.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | ATL | 287 over | +33.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CLE | 291 over | +37.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DET | 329 over | +75.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | PHI | 281 over | +27.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | -11 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
10 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 253.5 · best price DK -111
- DraftKings 253.5 -111 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Bally Bet 253.5 -113 (easiest number)
- betPARX 253.5 -113 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 253.5 -114 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 253.5 -114 (easiest number)
- Fliff 253.5 -120 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 253.5 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 254.5 -110
- Hard Rock Bet 254.5 -115
- BetMGM 256.5 -115
Line movement
- FanDuelMoved from 252.5 to 253.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 242.5 to 253.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 253.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ PHI | 281 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DET | 329 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ CLE | 291 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ ATL | 287 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs CHI | 361 | over |
| 2026-01-03 | @ TB | 266 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs SEA | 54 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs TB | 191 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NO | 163 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs LA | 206 | under |
| 2025-11-24 | @ SF | 169 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ATL | 448 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NO | 124 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ GB | 102 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ NYJ | 138 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DAL | 199 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs MIA | 198 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ NE | 150 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ATL | 121 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ ARI | 328 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ JAX | 154 | under |