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C.J. Stroud
HOU vs NYG · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 10.5 at BetRivers · median 9.5 ·
53Signal · under 10.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 2.7 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 12.7 yds against 10.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 10.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -18 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | ARI | 10 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | LV | 0 under | −10.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | LAC | 0 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | IND | 5 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | BUF | 15 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CIN | 29 over | +18.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | IND | 10 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DAL | 12 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | TEN | 5 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | JAX | 5 under | −5.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 10.5
- BetMGM 8.5
- PrizePicks 8.5
- ESPN Bet 9.5
- DraftKings 9.5
- FanDuel 9.5
- Fliff 9.5
- Hard Rock Bet 9.5
- Underdog 9.5
- betPARX 10.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 10.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 10.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 10.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ JAX | 5 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ TEN | 5 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DAL | 12 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ IND | 10 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CIN | 29 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BUF | 15 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs IND | 5 | under |
| 2025-12-27 | @ LAC | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs LV | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs ARI | 10 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ KC | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ IND | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs DEN | 12 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs SF | 30 | over |
| 2025-10-20 | @ SEA | 25 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ BAL | 30 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs TEN | 11 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ JAX | 22 | over |
| 2025-09-15 | vs TB | 27 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ LA | 32 | over |