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Carnell Tate
TEN @ CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 53.5 at betPARX · median 51.5 ·
46Signal · over 53.557% · 4 / 7 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 7Cleared the number in 4 of 7 games, 3 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.3 a game recently
Expected receiving yards: 59.0 yds against 53.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 53.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -47| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-13 | NYJ | 38 under | −15.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PHI | 27 under | −26.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NYG | 58 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BAL | 145 over | +91.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | HOU | 6 under | −47.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | IND | 70 over | +16.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | CLE | 69 over | +15.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 4 / 7 | 57% over | +6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 57% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 4 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 49.5
- ESPN Bet 49.5 -125 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 51.5 -112
- FanDuel 51.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 51.5 -115
- DK Pick6 51.5
- PrizePicks 51.5
- Fliff 52.5 -120
- betPARX 53.5 -114
- BetRivers 53.5 -115
- Bally Bet 53.5 -120
Line movement
- ESPN BetMoved from 54.5 to 49.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 54.5 to 51.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 54.5 to 51.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 55.5 to 51.5
- FliffMoved from 54.5 to 52.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 53.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs CLE | 69 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | @ IND | 70 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs HOU | 6 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ BAL | 145 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ NYG | 58 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PHI | 27 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs NYJ | 38 | under |