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Chase Brown
CIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETCarries · 12.5 at Fanatics · median 13 ·
49Signal · over 12.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 14.2 a game recently
Expected carries: 14.2 against 12.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 12.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -3.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | BUF | 12 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BAL | 13 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | MIA | 12 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | ARI | 22 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CLE | 13 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TB | 16 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | HOU | 20 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | PIT | 13 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | JAX | 9 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIA | 13 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +1.8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
8 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 12.5 · best price PX2 -132
- betPARX 12.5 -132 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Bally Bet 12.5 -139 (easiest number)
- Fanatics 12.5 -140 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 13
- DraftKings 13.5 +104
- Hard Rock Bet 13.5 +100
- Fliff 13.5 -105
- BetMGM 13.5 -110
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 12.5 to 13
- DraftKingsMoved from 12.5 to 13.5
- FliffMoved from 12.5 to 13.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 12.5 to 13.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 12.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ MIA | 13 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs JAX | 9 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ PIT | 13 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ HOU | 20 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs TB | 16 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs CLE | 13 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs ARI | 22 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ MIA | 12 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BAL | 13 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BUF | 12 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ BAL | 15 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NE | 19 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ PIT | 18 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs CHI | 11 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs NYJ | 12 | under |
| 2025-10-16 | vs PIT | 11 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ GB | 9 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DET | 8 | under |
| 2025-09-29 | @ DEN | 10 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ MIN | 10 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs JAX | 16 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ CLE | 21 | over |