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Chase Brown
CIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 74.5 at Underdog ·
45Signal · over 74.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 14.2 a game recently
- targets: 5.6 a game recently
- vs BAL · ×0.96 yds per carry
- vs BAL · ×0.98 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 71.3 yds against 74.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 74.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -39| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | BUF | 35 under | −39.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BAL | 90 over | +15.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | MIA | 109 over | +34.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | ARI | 141 over | +66.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CLE | 90 over | +15.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TB | 78 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | HOU | 82 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | PIT | 69 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | JAX | 81 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIA | 60 under | −14.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
74.56 books, no line disagreementDK · FD · HR · FL · PP · UD· best price at 74.5: DK -111
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 74.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ MIA | 60 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs JAX | 81 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ PIT | 69 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ HOU | 82 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs TB | 78 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs CLE | 90 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs ARI | 141 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ MIA | 109 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BAL | 90 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BUF | 35 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ BAL | 113 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NE | 130 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ PIT | 127 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs CHI | 112 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs NYJ | 105 | over |
| 2025-10-16 | vs PIT | 100 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ GB | 49 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DET | 48 | under |
| 2025-09-29 | @ DEN | 71 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ MIN | 20 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs JAX | 65 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ CLE | 51 | under |