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Chase Brown
CIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 49.5 at Fliff · median 50.5 ·
44Signal · over 49.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 14.2 a game recently
- vs BAL · ×0.96 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 47.1 yds against 49.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 49.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -39| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | BUF | 23 under | −26.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BAL | 53 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | MIA | 66 over | +16.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | ARI | 101 over | +51.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CLE | 72 over | +22.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TB | 56 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | HOU | 80 over | +30.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | PIT | 61 over | +11.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | JAX | 10 under | −39.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIA | 39 under | −10.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 48.5
- DraftKings 48.5 -111 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 49.5 -105
- Hard Rock Bet 49.5 -115
- Fliff 49.5 -125
- Underdog 49.5
- betPARX 50.5 -110
- BetRivers 50.5 -112
- FanDuel 50.5 -114
- Bally Bet 50.5 -117
- PrizePicks 50.5
- BetMGM 51.5 -115
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 49.5 to 48.5
- FliffMoved from 50.5 to 49.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 50.5 to 49.5
- Bally BetMoved from 51.5 to 50.5
- betPARXMoved from 51.5 to 50.5
- BetRiversMoved from 51.5 to 50.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 49.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ MIA | 39 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs JAX | 10 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ PIT | 61 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ HOU | 80 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs TB | 56 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs CLE | 72 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs ARI | 101 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ MIA | 66 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BAL | 53 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BUF | 23 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ BAL | 78 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NE | 107 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ PIT | 99 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs CHI | 37 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs NYJ | 73 | over |
| 2025-10-16 | vs PIT | 108 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ GB | 42 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DET | 27 | under |
| 2025-09-29 | @ DEN | 40 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ MIN | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs JAX | 47 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ CLE | 43 | under |