← NFL board
Chris Godwin Jr.
TB @ CAR · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 4.5 · median of 8 books ·
57Signal · under 4.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.8 a game recently
Expected receptions: 3.8 against 4.5 · over 43%, under 57%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Dec 11, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -2.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | ATL | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CAR | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | MIA | 7 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | CAR | 1 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CIN | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CLE | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIN | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | GB | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | DAL | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | PIT | 4 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +0.5 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
4.58 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BR · FD · BB · DK · ESPN · FL · HR
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs PIT | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-08 | @ DAL | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs GB | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs MIN | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CLE | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CIN | 4 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | vs CAR | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ MIA | 7 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CAR | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-11 | vs ATL | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs NO | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs ARI | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ LA | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ SEA | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs PHI | 3 | under |