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Cole Kmet
CHI vs NE · Thu 8:15 PM ETReceiving Yards · 9.5 at BetRivers · median 8.5 ·
60%over6 / 10 · last 10
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.8 a game recently
- vs NE · ×0.95 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 9.4 yds against 9.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 9.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -9| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 28 over | +18.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | GB | 14 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 16 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 16 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CAR | 35 over | +25.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 0 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | PHI | 0 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYJ | 13 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | GB | 8 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ATL | 3 under | −6.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
11 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 8.5 · best price FD -113
- FanDuel 8.5 -113 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- DraftKings 8.5 -114 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 8.5 -115 (easiest number)
- Fliff 8.5 -125 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 8.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 8.5 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 9.5 +100
- BetMGM 9.5 -110
- betPARX 9.5 -112
- BetRivers 9.5 -113
- Bally Bet 9.5 -117
Line movement
- DK Pick6Moved from 9.5 to 8.5
- BetMGMMoved from 8.5 to 9.5
- ESPN BetMoved from 8.5 to 9.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 9.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ ATL | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ GB | 8 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs NYJ | 13 | over |
| 2026-09-28 | vs PHI | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CAR | 35 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 16 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 16 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | 14 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 28 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 42 | over |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 36 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 45 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ CIN | 10 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | 16 | over |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LV | 46 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 10 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 29 | over |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | 31 | over |