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D'Andre Swift
CHI vs NE · Thu 8:15 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 86.5 · median of 10 books ·
48Signal · under 86.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
- Kyle Monangai RB is listed Out (thumb). He had 38% of CHI's carries this season, 15.0 a game over 4.
D'Andre's carries without Kyle Monangai: 12.5 a game (2 games), against 14.6 with him (20).
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 15.7 a game recently → 24.8 this game
- targets: 3.5 a game recently
- Monangai out · +9.1 carries (61% of his 15)
- Heavier load · ×1.04 yds per carry
- vs NE · ×0.98 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 131.9 yds against 86.5 · over 52%, under 48%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 86.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -47 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 96 over | +9.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | GB | 70 under | −16.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 79 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 48 under | −38.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CAR | 134 over | +47.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 99 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | PHI | 88 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYJ | 74 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | GB | 73 under | −13.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ATL | 70 under | −16.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 5 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 89.5
- Bally Bet 84.5
- betPARX 84.5
- BetRivers 84.5
- FanDuel 86.5
- BetMGM 86.5
- PrizePicks 86.5
- Hard Rock Bet 87.5
- Fliff 87.5
- DraftKings 88.5
- Underdog 89.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 87.5 to 84.5
- betPARXMoved from 87.5 to 84.5
- BetRiversMoved from 87.5 to 84.5
- FanDuelMoved from 85.5 to 86.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 85.5 to 86.5
- FliffMoved from 83.5 to 87.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 86.5 to 87.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 87.5 to 88.5
- UnderdogMoved from 84.5 to 89.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 86.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ ATL | 70 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ GB | 73 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs NYJ | 74 | under |
| 2026-09-28 | vs PHI | 88 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 99 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CAR | 134 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 48 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 79 | under |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | 70 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 96 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 82 | under |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 138 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 29 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 90 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 98 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | 71 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | 138 | over |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 175 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LV | 60 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 78 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 69 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | 65 | under |